Adam Dunn's Valuation

Dunn rumored as a possibility for the Dodgers, as Manny shows LA his back.

Here is an article on the rotten luck that Dunn suffered in 2008.

Sabermetricians are bearish on Dunn's value because of his perceived poor defense. Here is a typical example, calling Dunn "delusional" for asking $14m x 4. I guess I've got a wire on the fritz in my head somewhere, because that's a Richie Sexson contract from four years ago, and if I'm an MLB accountant I've got nothing against time-warp physics. :- )

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=== Stoploss Dept. ===

One good buddy sez,

He’s 2 WAR as a LF and 2.5 as a DH. Even if you assume $4.8mm in a normal market for this year, that is $9.6-$12.2 mm/yr at best.

Supposing that those numbers were absolutes: If he’s worth “$12.2m at best,” why would it be “ridiculous” and “delusional” for him to start his asking price at $14m short-term?

In Net Present Value, you’d be giving him $11.9m per year — if you gave him his first asking price.

Why is that “delusional” on his part?

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=== Let's Check Those Numbers ===

So, using the numbers that the anti-Dunn cynics use, he's worth $10-12m if you figure only two Wins Above Replacement (WAR) -- and he's asking $11.9m in NPV. Short term. So $14m x 4 is right on track, correct?

But:

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1. $4.8m per WAR is the lowest number I see used as the value of one free agent win added. I also see $5.5m. And that $4.8-5.5m number will RISE over four years.

2. If you go with -12 runs, rather than -23 runs, as your defensive estimate, that adds +1.1 WAR or $5.3 - $6.1m per year in LF. (Dunn's at $13.9 - $18.3m if you use this adjustment alone, even at the low $4.8m cost per WAR.)

3. If you don't agree with the blanket deduction of -2.25 WAR for DH, the value changes again. (If you use -1.5, he's worth $13.2 - $15.8m with this adjustment alone.)

4. If you project Dunn to benefit from Safeco, that increases his value yet again.

5. If you adjust Dunn's bad-luck 2008 for +400foot non-HR's, and for BABIP, his value increases yet again.

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I don't mind a low valuation of Dunn, but there's no reason to consider other points of view absurd, or delusional, or ridiculous, or anything like that.

Here's the high valuation on Dunn:

$5.5m per FA win

-12 runs on defense rather than -23, or smaller DH deduction ... we're at $16.5m so far

Adjust for bad-luck 2008; your opinion is he'll jell at 2004 hitting levels -- $21.0m per year

Adjust for Dunn's relative overperformance in a favorable home park like Dodger or Safeco - $24m per year

I don't want to hear that it's "delusional" for some GM to believe that Dunn is going to have good hitting seasons. You saberamigos are supposed to be the ones who are into adjusting for unlucky BABIP and HR/F.

You've got no excuse for ignoring his bad luck, or his big gains in eye ratio, in 2008. :- )

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Dunn might be worth only $10m per year going forward. But he also might be worth $20m. For him to ask $11.9m in net present value is completely reasonable.

Cheers,

Dr D

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image: http://www.knucklecurve.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/manny-ramirez-joe...